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同城头条  >  本地  >  标题字体为什么炽热的通货膨胀会减缓北京取代美国成为世界头号经济体的努力
标题字体为什么炽热的通货膨胀会减缓北京取代美国成为世界头号经济体的努力
2022年07月19日 18:07   浏览:17469   来源:菲社网

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一位中国知名经济学家说,由于通货膨胀率居高不下,以美元计算,中国经济今年可能会进一步落后于美国,中国应该对西方的炒作做好心理准备。

清华大学教授、中国央行前顾问大卫李稻葵表示,尽管中国的年增长率预计将好于美国,但根据即期美元计算,两国之间5万亿美元的经济产出差距可能会扩大。

李说,美国国内生产总值(国内生产总值)将被更高的通货膨胀率放大,加上美联储加息后人民币对美元走软。名义经济差距可能会成为西方世界的头条新闻。

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他周日在人民大学重阳金融研究院举办的一个论坛上说,我们需要做好思想准备。

中国已经享受了几十年的高速增长,其快速的经济崛起是该国许多人的骄傲。

但贸易争端、地缘政治紧张和北京自己的政策(包括零补贴战略和对房地产的监管打击)导致了经济放缓

sector - could slow its path to surpassing the US as the world's No 1 economy.

Some analysts have said that China's worse-than-expected 0.4 per cent economic growth in the second quarter showed the country's post-Covid recovery was less impressive than its geopolitical rival.

Former World Bank chief economist Justin Lin Yifu, who is now an adviser to the Chinese government, said in May that China had surpassed the US in terms of purchasing power parity in 2014, and the country's economic output was bound to be twice that of the US one day.

In January, a day after China published its 2021 GDP growth figure of 8.1 per cent, former vice-foreign minister Le Yucheng said the country was "not interested" in becoming the world's largest economy or global hegemony.

Even if talk grows louder about the widening GDP gap, China does not have to be too worried, said Li.

"After all, the economic growth of a country is calculated by itself, (we) should calculate on the basis of purchasing power parity instead of spot dollars. China's fundamentals are still good," he said.

Western economies have this year been suffering from their fastest growing inflation in decades, raising fears about a looming global recession as more monetary tightening is expected from policymakers.

The year-round average inflation rate in the US is forecast to be above 8 per cent - much higher than that of China, said Li.

He said China should brace for a scenario in which Western nations will go through a long period of high inflation and low growth.

However, that scenario, known as stagflation, could come with some advantages for China. Liu Yuanchun, president of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said last month it would make it more difficult for the US and EU to decouple from China's industrial and supply chains as a result.

According to Li, because developed Western countries are generally debtors, they could have more tolerance for high levels of inflation, which could devalue their debt.

The economist deemed the current crop of central bank leaders in the US, Europe and Japan as more inclined to maintain a certain level of economic growth over taming inflation the way the former US Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker did 40 years ago, citing their personalities and academic backgrounds.

The "very simple" monetary and fiscal stimulus adopted by Western economies to cope with the impact of the pandemic was to blame for current overheating, he said.

The yuan is unlikely to depreciate sharply against the US dollar this year given China's robust trade surplus and falling deficit in service trade, Li said.

But the economy faced challenges, notably from the economic shock of recent coronavirus outbreaks, he said.

"The operation of our economy is relatively difficult, we must be matter-of-fact," he said.

Echoing comments from other economists recently, he called for more expansive monetary policy to address liquidity problems for property developers and ensure economic stability in the short term.

While he noted efforts to boost investment in infrastructure and new energy industries, Li was critical of some regulatory actions on internet giants that had not boosted innovation, but rather settled old scores.

"The enthusiasm of many private entrepreneurs has been hurt, therefore, we should try every means to restore their confidence in investment and development," he said.

He also called for further reform to encourage local authorities to take a more active role in market activities.

Copyright (c) 2022. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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